Political Skullduggery

With a multitude of disasters reaching near biblical levels, the Republicans are facing challenges in the fall congressional races in many parts of the country.

Not since 1994 has the party in power -- in this case the Republicans -- faced such a discouraging landscape in a midterm election. President Bush is weaker than he was just a year ago, a majority of voters in recent polls have signaled their desire for a change in direction, and Democrats outpoll Republicans on which party voters think is more capable of handling the country's biggest problems.

The result is a midterm already headed toward what appears to be an inevitable conclusion: Democrats are poised to gain seats in the House and in the Senate for the first time since 2000. The difference between modest gains (a few seats in the Senate and fewer than 10 in the House) and significant gains (half a dozen in the Senate and well more than a dozen in the House) is where the battle for control of Congress will be fought.

The contest begins with Republicans holding 231 House seats and Democrats holding 201, with one Democrat-leaning independent and two vacancies, split between the parties. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to dethrone the GOP majority. In the Senate, Republicans hold 55 seats to the Democrats' 44, with one Democrat-leaning independent. Democrats need six more seats to take power...

There is still time for things to improve for the Republicans:

History dictates a certain modesty about predictions. Early in 1994, few foresaw the size of the Republican landslide-in-the-making. By November, the anti-incumbent mood overwhelmed even well-prepared candidates. If the public mood deteriorates further this year, Republicans could be swamped; if not, the GOP could be adequately equipped to wage trench warfare state by state and district by district and leave Washington's current balance of power intact.

We discussed the money picture on this blog a few days ago, but here's a recap:

The DSCC ended last year with about $15 million more in the bank than the NRSC. On the House side, the NRCC raised $22 million more than its Democratic counterpart, but ended the year with just $4 million more in its campaign coffers. Looming over all of these financial calculations is the sizable $28.5 million cash edge the Republican National Committee has over the Democratic National Committee, which could wipe out other Democratic fundraising successes in 2005.

If there is a wave that carries Democrats to power in the Senate, it must begin in Democratic strongholds of the East, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, before sweeping west through such traditionally GOP-leaning states as Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Arizona. Democrats are most optimistic about defeating Republican incumbents in the first four of these half-dozen states. Beating the incumbents in the other two looks more difficult...

At this point estimates of the number of genuinely competitive House races ranges from a low of 25 or 30 to as high as 40 in the most optimistic Democratic scenarios. Democrats' best opportunities will come in Republican-held open seats, with the three best prospects, according to both parties, in Arizona's 8th District, Colorado's 7th District and Iowa's 1st District.

But Republicans say they have opportunities to pick up seats in Ohio's 6th and 13th districts, both of which are being vacated by Democratic members seeking statewide office.

Given recent trends, in which reelection rates have hovered around 95 percent in the House, it is no easy task to beat a sitting member of Congress. Because of the Abramoff scandal, however, Democrats have two golden opportunities to oust embattled incumbents in Ohio and Texas.

Former House majority leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), who, in addition to his connections to Abramoff, is under indictment by an Austin grand jury, finds himself in what promises to be a close race against former representative Nick Lampson (D). Former Republican representative Steve Stockman's independent candidacy is another complicating factor for DeLay.

Ohio Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) appears to be at the center of the pay-to-play schemes of Abramoff and has been informed by federal investigators that he may be indicted. Ney has pledged to run regardless but is trailing his two little-known Democratic opponents in internal GOP surveys.

If the American public remains oblivious to the malfeasant majority party and leaves them in command of congress, the country will get exactly what they deserve (to paraphrase the wise Frenchman, Alexis de Tocqueville.)